What the Coffee Price Surge Reveals About Supply Chain Readiness

Coffee lovers like me are waking up to more than just caffeine. According to government data, the average retail price of ground roast coffee in February 2025 reached a record $7.25 per pound in the U.S., which is a direct result of escalating costs across the global supply chain.

That marks a nearly 30% jump compared to typical prices in recent years. And it’s not just a consumer story—it’s a supply chain alarm bell.

Behind the scenes, wholesale arabica coffee prices surged past $4.30 per pound, the highest level in over a decade.

This isn’t just inflation—it’s a perfect storm of disruption:

• Droughts in Brazil
• Flooding in Vietnam
• Port congestion and extended shipping times
• Rising demand from China
• Unwinding futures contracts that failed to hedge against cost spikes

Even coffee roasters that locked in long-term pricing are taking losses as those positions unravel. And the ripple effect? It’s already flowing downstream to retailers, consumers, and balance sheets.

But the real story here isn’t coffee. It’s supply chain planning and how many companies still aren’t ready when the unexpected hits.

When volatility strikes, the typical response is chaos: Manual forecast updates. Spreadsheet gymnastics. Procurement fire drills. Margin recalculations. Cross-functional misalignment. Everyone’s moving—but no one’s in sync.

And while the organization struggles to catch up, the market continues shifting.

This isn’t new. We've seen it with labor shortages, semiconductor constraints, trade wars, and transport bottlenecks. What’s changed is how frequent and overlapping the disruptions have become.

Traditional planning tools rely on fixed lead times and static business rules. They can’t simulate thousands of outcomes. They don’t learn from real-time inputs. And they certainly don’t help you decide what to do next.

So, the big question becomes: How do you plan when the world refuses to follow the plan?

At ketteQ, we believe the answer lies in agentic AI-powered adaptive supply chain planning, a fundamentally different approach to managing complexity and change.

Powered by our PolymatiQ™ agentic AI solver and built on Salesforce, ketteQ helps companies:

• Continuously update forecasts and inventory policies based on live data
• Run high-speed simulations to evaluate sourcing, fulfillment, and inventory options
• Coordinate plans across supply, demand, finance, and sales
• Make smarter, faster decisions before the crisis hits

Under the hood, ketteQ is built with agentic AI—AI that supports human decision-makers instead of replacing them.

Rather than dictating a single answer, PolymatiQ presents a range of optimized paths, explains trade-offs, and learns from your business context. That means planners stay in control with the insights they need to act confidently.

Let’s go back to coffee.

When prices spike and the futures market fails to deliver protection, ketteQ customers are already:

• Modeling alternate sourcing strategies
• Rebalancing inventory based on cost-to-serve
• Adjusting safety stock to protect margins
• Aligning finance and sales around shared data  

They’re not guessing. They’re executing—at speed.

And coffee is just this week’s example. Cocoa, copper, cobalt, climate events, and contract disruptions, are all part of the new reality. The only question is whether your supply chain is built to keep up.they’re all part of the new reality. The only question is whether your supply chain is built to keep up.

If you’re still relying on a single forecast and rigid parameters, you’re not planning. You’re gambling.

Key Takeaways

Your morning coffee might cost more.

But your supply chain decisions shouldn’t come with the same surprise.

With ketteQ, you don’t just make a plan; you prepare for every possibility with a platform that learns, adapts, and collaborates with your team.

That’s adaptive planning.

That’s agentic AI.

That’s ketteQ.

Let’s talk if you’re ready to turn volatility into your advantage.