Supply chains have always been complex, but now they feel more like navigating a storm that refuses to settle. Geopolitical rifts, natural disasters, labor strikes and erratic demand patterns are the new normal, forcing businesses to make decisions in the face of constant unpredictability. The only way to stay ahead? Adaptive planning. But hidden within this approach is a game-changing concept that often flies under the radar: the difference between single-pass and multi-pass supply chain solves. Understanding this distinction could mean the difference between surviving disruption or thriving in its wake.

What is a Single-Pass Solve?

A single-pass solve is a traditional approach in supply chain planning that runs a simulation or scenario once demand by demand and produces results based on pre-defined and often outdated assumptions and parameters. This method is typically referred to as a heuristic approach and provides a clear and straightforward outcome compared to optimization techniques but is inherently limited. It assumes the inputs are static and doesn’t account for the range of variables that may shift before the plan can be implemented. While this may work for a certain set of conditions, the hyper-connected and dynamic environments in which the world’s supply chains operate are far from stable and rarely ideal.

The limitations of a single-pass heuristic solve is particularly evident when dealing with complex, dynamic factors such as supply disruptions, demand fluctuations, or changes in lead times. Because the model only processes one set of assumptions, often set at the time of implementation and not well understood, it doesn't explore other potential outcomes that could better inform decision-making and business performance.

The Advantage of a Multi-Pass Solve

A multi-pass solve, on the other hand, introduces a more sophisticated and dynamic approach. Instead of running a scenario once, a multi-pass solve runs multiple iterations, each with slightly varied inputs. These inputs may include changes in demand sorting, forecasts, supplier lead times, production schedules, or sourcing options. This probabilistic modeling generates a range of likely future outcomes, which allows businesses to better understand the supply chain boundary conditions and the extent to which certain events can punish performance.

Here’s why multi-pass solves deliver exceptional value to supply chain planning:

• Scenario Exploration: Multi-pass solves empower automatically test thousands of scenarios and assumptions in parallel, with the planning engine exploring a range of potential future outcomes rather than forcing a single path and outdated set of assumptions. This reduces the risk of being blindsided by unforeseen events.

• Risk Mitigation: With multi-pass solves, organizations can identify and prepare for potential risks by analyzing how different variables impact the supply chain and understanding the range in which they are operating. For example, before demand unexpectedly spikes, the system has already assessed how various levels of inventory buffers or production adjustments could meet the increase. This enables proactive planning rather than reactive scrambling by knowing the boundary conditions and shape of the supply chain.

• Automatic Tuning Across Variables: Adaptive supply chain planning requires the ability to adjust multiple variables, and multi-pass solves are uniquely capable of making this possible. While a single-pass solution may plan quickly for one set of parameters, like priority of demand, a multi-pass solve can simultaneously test for multiple variable adjustments, such as cost, demand priority, supply options, and lead times, providing a holistic solution that tests and evaluations a large number of factors.

• Continuous Learning: The continuous exploration and evaluation of running multiple scenarios allows multi-pass solves to learn and improve with each iteration seeking out the failure points and high ground of a supply chain. As new data and market conditions arise, the system refines its predictions and tuning, ensuring the supply chain is always operating with the most up-to-date information and parameters.

The Role of Multi-Pass Solves in Adaptive Supply Chain Planning

Multi-pass solves play a foundational role in adaptive supply chain planning, where flexibility and responsiveness are paramount. Here’s how:

• Building Resilience: Adaptive supply chain planning isn’t about predicting the future with 100% certainty. Instead, it’s about preparing for a range of possible futures. Multi-pass solves help businesses build resilience by providing the insights needed to craft plans that are adaptable to different scenarios, ensuring smooth operations even when unexpected disruptions occur by understanding the range in which they are operating of what can be sustained.

• Enhanced Collaboration: Since multi-pass solves account for various outcomes, they promote cross-functional collaboration across departments. Sales, procurement, and operations can each evaluate and pressure test scenarios that are relevant to their objectives and work together to select the best overall strategy. This breaks down silos and aligns teams around shared, data-driven decisions.

• Strategic Decision-Making: The ability to explore different scenarios and outcomes in a multi-pass framework fosters more strategic and confident decision-making. Instead of relying on a rigid plan built from a single set of assumptions, supply chain leaders can compare various options, weigh trade-offs, and select the plan that best supports the company’s long-term objectives with the confidence of knowing what can be sustained.

• Adaptability in Uncertain Markets: Whether it’s navigating sudden shifts in consumer demand or responding to supply chain shocks, the multi-pass approach allows businesses to dynamically adapt to changing market conditions. This adaptability ensures that organizations remain agile and can pivot quickly to meet new challenges ensuring business performance.

How ketteQ’s PolymatiQ™ Powers Multi-Pass Solves and Adaptive Planning

At the heart of ketteQ’s Adaptive Supply Chain Planning is the patent-pending PolymatiQ™ solver, which leverages multi-pass solves and probabilistic modeling to deliver a full spectrum of possible outcomes. By continuously tuning and adjusting based on real-time data, ketteQ enables businesses to move beyond static planning and embrace a truly adaptive approach. This not only enhances decision-making and reduces risk but also represents a key step toward semi-autonomous planning.

As supply chain complexity continues to increase, the flexibility and foresight provided by multi-pass solves, powered by ketteQ’s PolymatiQ solve, are critical for future-ready organizations. This capability ensures that businesses are prepared for the uncertainties ahead while driving maximum operational and financial performance.

Interested in learning more about how adaptive planning can improve your supply chain? Download The Definitive Guide to Adaptive Planning to explore the potential of ketteQ’s PolymatiQ™ and how it can help your business navigate future uncertainties.

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