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The Challenge: Balancing Order Quantities in an Unpredictable Market

Ordering inventory is a balancing act. Order too much, and you’re stuck with excess stock, high carrying costs, and potential obsolescence. Order too little, and you risk stockouts, lost sales, and customer dissatisfaction.

Traditional order management relies on fixed reorder points and static forecasting models, which fail to account for demand fluctuations, supply disruptions, and shifting market conditions. To stay competitive, businesses need a dynamic, AI-powered approach to order optimization.

How Probabilistic Modeling Transforms Order Management

Smarter Demand Forecasting with AI

Probabilistic modeling analyzes thousands of demand scenarios, ensuring order decisions align with real-time trends rather than static assumptions. This allows businesses to:

  • Identify seasonal demand fluctuations
  • Adjust order sizes dynamically based on probability-driven insights
  • Minimize stock outs while avoiding overstocking

Optimized Multi-Supplier Sourcing

AI-driven modeling evaluates supplier risks, lead time variability, and cost differences, allowing companies to:

  • Shift orders to alternative suppliers when risks arise
  • Balance cost-efficiency with reliability
  • Reduce dependency on a single supplier, strengthening supply chain resilience

Real-Time Order Adjustments

Static order cycles lead to inefficiencies. Probabilistic modeling ensures businesses:

  • Increase or decrease order frequency based on market conditions
  • Adjust safety stock dynamically to minimize costs
  • Optimize storage space and cash flow while maintaining service levels

Real-World Success: AI-Powered Order Management in Action

Johnson Controls Optimizes Inventory for Service Parts Management

Johnson Controls, a global leader in building systems, faced challenges with service parts inventory inefficiencies and stockouts. By leveraging AI-driven probabilistic modeling, they gained precise visibility into demand variability and lead times. This allowed them to optimize inventory levels across their network, reducing excess stock while ensuring critical parts were always available. The result was improved customer satisfaction and a streamlined service operation.

Cosmetica Achieves Agile Supply Chain Planning

Cosmetica, a leading manufacturer in the beauty and personal care industry, struggled with fluctuating demand and supply chain complexity. With probabilistic modeling, they dynamically adjusted production plans, improved demand forecasting accuracy, and aligned inventory levels with market needs. This approach reduced excess inventory by 18 percent and enhanced responsiveness to shifting consumer trends.

MobilityWorks Enhances Adaptive Inventory Planning

MobilityWorks, a leading provider of accessible transportation solutions, needed a more flexible approach to inventory management. By implementing probabilistic modeling, they simulated multiple demand scenarios, ensuring stock was in the right place at the right time. This strategy reduced downtime, minimized costs, and improved service levels for their customers.

quip Improves Fulfillment and Supply Chain Efficiency

quip, an innovative oral care brand, faced fulfillment delays and supply chain disruptions as they scaled operations. By utilizing AI-powered probabilistic modeling, they identified bottlenecks and developed proactive strategies to mitigate disruptions. This allowed them to maintain high service levels while supporting business growth and product expansion.

The Future of Order Management: AI-Driven Decision Making

Companies still relying on outdated order management methods risk:

  • Overstocking and high inventory costs
  • Stockouts and lost revenue
  • Inefficient supplier relationships and disruptions

With AI-driven probabilistic modeling, businesses can:

  • Reduce supply chain costs while maintaining service levels
  • Optimize order sizes and sourcing strategies dynamically
  • Enhance forecasting accuracy for more efficient inventory management

Optimize Your Order Strategy Today

Is your business still relying on static order planning? Discover how leading companies are using AI-powered probabilistic modeling to optimize order management and cut costs.

Download the full white paper to learn more: Mastering the Unpredictable.

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About the author

Mark Balte
Mark Balte
Vice President of Services

Mark has over 38 years of Supply Chain experience leading visionary technology innovations that drive transformative process changes which result in significant financial and quantitative results for clients. He is renowned for his unique ability to formulate a visionary strategic road map which applies technology to solve complex supply chain challenges.

Prior to joining ketteQ, Mark held key executive leadership positions at Logility including overall responsibility for Research and Development, Product Management, Analyst Relations, Thought Leadership, Acquisitions.

Mark received his Bachelor of Science in Mathematics from Sewanee (University of the South) and his Master of Science in Operations Research from Georgia Tech.